PNNL

Abstract

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fuelled an energy crisis, considerably impacting Europe given its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas. Using four integrated assessment models that are further soft-linked to two sectoral models, this model inter-comparison study explores the trade-offs among three approaches to living without Russian gas in Europe: replacing with other gas imports, boosting domestic energy production, and accelerating energy efficiency. Substituting Russian gas from elsewhere would miss an opportunity to accelerate decarbonisation while risking fossil-fuel lock-ins, despite featuring the lowest gas price spikes, reducing near-term heating costs for end-users. Increasing domestic (primarily renewable) energy production would instead require considerable investments, with consumers potentially picking up the tab. Energy demand reductions, however, may offer more space for emissions cuts at the lowest electricity-sector investment costs but risk relocation of energy-intensive industries and rebound effects post-2040. All strategies would lead to gas-price discrepancies across Europe but lower overall gas imports.