PNNL

Abstract

Climate change is opening access to offshore Arctic oil and gas resources. The degree to which these resources are exploited will depend on sea-ice conditions, technology costs, international energy markets, and the regulatory environment. We use an integrated human-Earth system model, GCAM, to explore the effects of spatial-temporal patterns of sea-ice loss under climate change on future Arctic offshore oil and gas extraction, considering interactions with global energy markets and emission reduction targets. We find that in a “Fossil-fueled development” scenario (i.e., SSP5), future extraction of Arctic offshore oil and gas through 2100 adds roughly 0.8-2.6 EJ/year on average to oil and gas markets, depending on future sea-ice conditions, but is not likely to affect global oil and gas market. Surprisingly, a low-carbon scenario results in greater Arctic offshore oil production to offset the more emissions-intensive unconventional oil production.